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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightloss 0:2
series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Doom
Doomoften banned
Irving · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 6 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 5 games
60%
Silencer
Silencer
Undyne_ · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 4 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 4 games
50%

LGD Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
y` · 9 games
56%
Luna
Lunasignature
shiro · 7 games
71%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 7 games
57%
Muerta
Muertasignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
shiro · 6 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 6 games
17%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
niu · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
254 picks · 425 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
244 picks · 375 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
242 picks · 336 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
215 picks · 202 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 285 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
199 picks · 499 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
196 picks · 98 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
179 picks · 322 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total92% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:19
Team Bright 23%LGD Gaming 77%
The model gave 77% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorUlu
53% · 69 games55% · 81 game
Medusashiro
Medusa
Kunkka
KunkkaButterflyEffect
48% · 96 games42% · 192 games
Ember SpiritEmo
Ember Spirit
Doom
DoomIrving
53% · 327 games50% · 69 games
Brewmasterniu
Brewmaster
Marci
MarciRedPanda
48% · 83 games52% · 161 game
Enchantressy`
Enchantress
52% · 72 games
LionPyw
Lion
Game 2prediction correct8:26
Team Bright 22%LGD Gaming 78%
The model gave 78% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
52% · 132 games45% · 33 games
Weavershiro
Weaver
Meepo
MeepoUlu
47% · 21 game53% · 97 games
Doomniu
Doom
Viper
ViperIrving
57% · 27 games50% · 134 games
PangolierEmo
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixRedPanda
46% · 196 games50% · 72 games
TechiesPyw
Techies
52% · 40 games
Marciy`
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 92%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2