Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Piggy Killerwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bright
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Undyne_ · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Irving · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Undyne_ · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Irving · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Irving · 1 game
Piggy Killer
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 3 games
Tiny
Frisk · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 2 games
Mirana
Frisk · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 2 games
Clockwerk
Victoria · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Srf · 1 game
Disruptor
Victoria · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
947 picks · 637 bans
Tiny
656 picks · 456 bans
Nature's Prophet
569 picks · 905 bans
Tusk
549 picks · 441 bans
Treant Protector
538 picks · 531 bans
Snapfire
506 picks · 336 bans
Death Prophet
484 picks · 1070 bans
Clockwerk
459 picks · 341 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 78%
Hero pool strength56% Piggy Killer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Piggy Killer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:33
Team Bright 44%Piggy Killer 56%
The model gave 56% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 35:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark SeerIrving
Slarkflyfly
Ember Spiritphoenix
Death ProphetXm
SnapfireUndyne_
SlardarSrf
48% · 241 game
UndyingVictoria
52% · 157 games
DisruptorFrisk
Game 2prediction correct24:37
Team Bright 41%Piggy Killer 59%
The model gave 59% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 39:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawIrving
Night Stalkerflyfly
Ember Spiritphoenix
LeshracXm
TuskUndyne_
BeastmasterSrf
53% · 268 games
MiranaVictoria
55% · 532 games
TinyFrisk
Model check result
Model favoritePiggy Killer · 64%
Series resultPiggy Killer 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2