Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Supernovaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bright
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
Snapfire
Undyne_ · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Undyne_ · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Irving · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Undyne_ · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Irving · 1 game
Supernova
Tusk
sheep · 5 games
Hoodwink
sheep · 4 games
Earth Spirit
sheep · 3 games
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
Mirana
sheep · 3 games
Rubick
sheep · 3 games
Tiny
sheep · 3 games
Snapfire
sheep · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
969 picks · 663 bans
Tiny
658 picks · 470 bans
Nature's Prophet
581 picks · 940 bans
Tusk
557 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 526 bans
Snapfire
523 picks · 347 bans
Death Prophet
505 picks · 1106 bans
Clockwerk
475 picks · 349 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Team Bright
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:9
Team Bright 55%Supernova 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 28:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophosphoenix
Hoodwinksheep
Primal BeastIrving
ClockwerkUndyne_
Game 2prediction correct31:24
Team Bright 55%Supernova 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 41:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshracphoenix
Rubicksheep
TimbersawIrving
LichUndyne_
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 55%
Series resultTeam Bright 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2