Team Bright vs Team Trust — prediction I2ОК · Dota 2

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The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Team Brightwin 2:1

series probability

75%25%

probability at match start · final 2:1

Team Trustloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Tidehunter

Irving · 9 games

56%

Batrideroften banned

TK · 8 games

38%

Crystal Maiden

RedPanda · 8 games

38%

Shadow Demonoften banned

RedPanda · 8 games

25%

Slardarsignature

Irving · 8 games

63%

Ember Spiritoften banned

ButterflyEffect · 7 games

57%

Linasignature

Ulu · 7 games

71%

Razoroften banned

Ulu · 7 games

14%

Team Trust

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Crystal Maiden

486 picks · 221 bans

52%

Tiny

454 picks · 732 bans

53%

Centaur Warrunner

432 picks · 628 bans

54%

Gyrocopter

426 picks · 405 bans

50%

Batrider

405 picks · 755 bans

50%

Rubick

386 picks · 164 bans

51%

Dragon Knight

358 picks · 1035 bans

53%

Pangolier

357 picks · 745 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)42% vs 40%

Hero pool strength52% Team Trust

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total75% Team Bright

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct29:5

Team Bright 65%Team Trust 35%

The model gave 65% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 17:49.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo