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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightwin 2:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Titanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Doom
Doomoften banned
Irving · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 6 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 5 games
60%
Silencer
Silencer
Undyne_ · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 4 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 4 games
50%

Titan

Tusk
Tusk
mercy · 4 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Undyne_ · 3 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
ELeVeN · 2 games
0%
Lion
Lion
mercy · 2 games
50%
Techies
Techies
mercy · 2 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
flyfly · 2 games
50%
Zeus
Zeus
Setsu · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
ELeVeN · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
256 picks · 425 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
246 picks · 376 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
243 picks · 336 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
215 picks · 202 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 285 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
199 picks · 501 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
196 picks · 98 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
179 picks · 322 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Titan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:36
Team Bright 40%Titan 60%
The model gave 60% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingUlu
49% · 161 game45% · 34 games
Lifestealerflyfly
Lifestealer
Windranger
WindrangerButterflyEffect
53% · 120 games48% · 94 games
Queen of PainSetsu
Queen of Pain
Magnus
MagnusIrving
50% · 151 game48% · 221 game
DoomELeVeN
Doom
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRedPanda
54% · 108 games47% · 86 games
Lionmercy
Lion
55% · 105 games
LichUndyne_
Lich
Game 2prediction missed35:25
Team Bright 42%Titan 58%
The model gave 58% on Titan — the game was taken by Team Bright in 45:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlu
61% · 72 games43% · 37 games
AbaddonELeVeN
Abaddon
Magnus
MagnusButterflyEffect
60% · 132 games44% · 49 games
ZeusSetsu
Zeus
Enigma
EnigmaIrving
56% · 66 games49% · 191 game
Morphlingflyfly
Morphling
Undying
UndyingRedPanda
44% · 143 games43% · 65 games
Centaur WarrunnerUndyne_
Centaur Warrunner
46% · 71 game
Lionmercy
Lion
Game 3prediction missed38:33
Team Bright 41%Titan 59%
The model gave 59% on Titan — the game was taken by Team Bright in 55:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlu
60% · 187 games54% · 273 games
PangolierSetsu
Pangolier
Magnus
MagnusButterflyEffect
44% · 221 game50% · 33 games
Lifestealerflyfly
Lifestealer
Broodmother
BroodmotherIrving
47% · 125 games53% · 254 games
DoomELeVeN
Doom
Undying
UndyingRedPanda
44% · 284 games49% · 207 games
BatriderUndyne_
Batrider
50% · 50 games
Vengeful Spiritmercy
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTitan · 68%
Series resultTeam Bright 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3