ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightwin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Titanloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bright
Doomoften banned
Irving · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
phoenix · 8 games
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 7 games
Tidehuntersignature
Irving · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 5 games
Shadow Demon
RedPanda · 5 games
Titan
Lion
mercy · 4 games
Tusk
mercy · 4 games
Doomoften banned
ELeVeN · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Undyne_ · 3 games
Zeusoften banned
Setsu · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
ELeVeN · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Undyne_ · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
ELeVeN · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 426 bans
Phoenix
271 picks · 402 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 622 bans
Tusk
224 picks · 205 bans
Lion
222 picks · 196 bans
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 105 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 302 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 54%
Hero pool strength60% Team Bright
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Titan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:14
Team Bright 46%Titan 54%
The model gave 54% on Titan — the game was taken by Team Bright in 35:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaUlu
Naga Sirenflyfly
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
ZeusDust
SlardarIrving
Centaur WarrunnerELeVeN
ClockwerkRedPanda
Techiesmercy
56% · 50 games
GrimstrokeUndyne_
Game 2prediction missed37:23
Team Bright 46%Titan 54%
The model gave 54% on Titan — the game was taken by Team Bright in 40:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Medusaflyfly
LunaUlu
TimbersawELeVeN
Night StalkerIrving
PuckDust
PugnaRedPanda
Dark Willowmercy
56% · 203 games
BatriderUndyne_
Model check result
Model favoriteTitan · 60%
Series resultTeam Bright 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2