BETBOOM Streamers Battle 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Cake Teamloss 1:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Daxak Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cake Team
Anti-Mage
Smiling Knight · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Limitless · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
dabex · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Limitless · 1 game
Lich
dabex · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Cake · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
Limitless · 1 game
Shadow Demon
Shishak · 1 game
Daxak Team
Grimstroke
Groom · 4 games
Witch Doctor
r4dom1r · 4 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Unique · 3 games
Earthshaker
Unique · 3 games
Morphling
eccobladee2k · 3 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Daxak · 3 games
Pangolier
Unique · 3 games
Sand King
Daxak · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
487 picks · 291 bans
Dark Willow
365 picks · 160 bans
Mirana
358 picks · 158 bans
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 479 bans
Centaur Warrunner
303 picks · 302 bans
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 471 bans
Winter Wyvern
288 picks · 269 bans
Clockwerk
267 picks · 178 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 62%
Hero pool strength62% Daxak Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Daxak Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:24
Cake Team 39%Daxak Team 61%
The model gave 61% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by Daxak Team in 36:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterLimitless
Medusaeccobladee2k
NecrophosSmiling Knight
Lone DruidDaxak
Nature's ProphetCake
Snapfireya sulen
Dark WillowShishak
TuskGroom
Silencerdabex
JakiroWeeeNy
Game 2prediction missed45:39
Cake Team 40%Daxak Team 60%
The model gave 60% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by Cake Team in 53:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UndyingLimitless
Dark SeerDaxak
LifestealerSmiling Knight
Earthshakerya sulen
MagnusCake
Spectreeccobladee2k
GrimstrokeShishak
HoodwinkGroom
Techiesdabex
VenomancerWeeeNy
Game 3prediction correct33:45
Cake Team 38%Daxak Team 62%
The model gave 62% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by Daxak Team in 1:19:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinySmiling Knight
TidehunterDaxak
Centaur WarrunnerLimitless
Ember Spiritya sulen
InvokerCake
Slarkeccobladee2k
MuertaShishak
Nyx AssassinGroom
Crystal Maidendabex
DazzleWeeeNy
Model check result
Model favoriteDaxak Team · 69%
Series resultDaxak Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3