Cake Team vs avice Team — prediction BSB 15 · Dota 2

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BETBOOM Streamers Battle 15 · BO3

result vs prediction

Cake Teamloss 1:1

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 1:1

avice Teamloss 1:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cake Team

No games played over 6 months.

avice Team

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

486 picks · 293 bans

51%

Mirana

350 picks · 148 bans

53%

Dark Willow

346 picks · 157 bans

50%

Ember Spirit

325 picks · 466 bans

59%

Centaur Warrunner

296 picks · 299 bans

55%

Earth Spirit

292 picks · 457 bans

53%

Winter Wyvern

279 picks · 259 bans

59%

Undying

269 picks · 364 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% Cake Team

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% Cake Team

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed25:31

Cake Team 51%avice Team 49%

The model gave 51% on Cake Team — the game was taken by avice Team in 38:35.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo