Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team CDMloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FH Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team CDM
No games played over 6 months.
FH Gaming
Disruptor
斗圣 · 2 games
Lich
斗圣 · 2 games
Dazzle
斗圣 · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 265 bans
Marci
308 picks · 558 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 216 bans
Undying
282 picks · 469 bans
Pangolier
248 picks · 449 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 523 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 307 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 110 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team CDM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team CDM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:42
Team CDM 56%FH Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Team CDM — the game was taken by FH Gaming in 34:17.
Game 2prediction missed15:32
Team CDM 56%FH Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Team CDM — the game was taken by FH Gaming in 26:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam CDM · 56%
Series resultFH Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2