Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team CDMwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JustPlaYGameloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team CDM
No games played over 6 months.
JustPlaYGame
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
349 picks · 268 bans
Marci
302 picks · 549 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 215 bans
Undying
276 picks · 459 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 455 bans
Primal Beast
233 picks · 521 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 308 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Team CDM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Team CDM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct70:18
Team CDM 53%JustPlaYGame 47%
The model gave 53% on Team CDM — the game was taken by Team CDM in 29:23.
Game 2prediction correct49:18
Team CDM 53%JustPlaYGame 47%
The model gave 53% on Team CDM — the game was taken by Team CDM in 20:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam CDM · 53%
Series resultTeam CDM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2