BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs predictionTDTeam Dloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TMTeam Mysterywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team D
Anti-Mageoften banned
vtFαded · 1 game
Axeoften banned
vtFαded · 1 game
Lion
Ponlo · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Ponlo · 1 game
Phoenix
Ponlo · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
vtFαded · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
vtFαded · 1 game
Winter Wyvern
Ponlo · 1 game
Team Mystery
Dragon Knightoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
Ghost · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Eren · 4 games
Tusk
Ponyo · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 3 games
Phoenix
Ponyo · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
mks- · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
464 picks · 182 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 205 bans
Mars
351 picks · 558 bans
Puck
334 picks · 824 bans
Ancient Apparition
315 picks · 473 bans
Nyx Assassin
309 picks · 603 bans
Tiny
306 picks · 242 bans
Enchantress
286 picks · 362 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 29%
Hero pool strength57% Team D
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team D
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:30
Team D 53%Team Mystery 47%
The model gave 53% on Team D — the game was taken by Team Mystery in 33:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautvtFαded
LinaMercury
OraclePonlo
Slarkmks-
59% · 114 games
Marsxiaoyu154
49% · 46 games
Ancient ApparitionEren
Game 2prediction missed26:37
Team D 53%Team Mystery 47%
The model gave 53% on Team D — the game was taken by Team Mystery in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingvtFαded
Spectremks-
Ancient ApparitionPonlo
Dragon Knightxiaoyu154
35% · 26 games
Sand KingMercury
55% · 82 games
Nyx AssassinEren
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam D · 55%
Series resultTeam Mystery 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2