Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTDTeam Dloss 0:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team SMGwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team D
No games played over 6 months.
Team SMG
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 6 games
Earth Spirit
AhFu · 6 games
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
Brewmasteroften banned
ninjaboogie · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Ohaiyo · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
454 picks · 1010 bans
Void Spirit
425 picks · 611 bans
Mars
371 picks · 643 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 666 bans
Earth Spirit
334 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
280 picks · 380 bans
Tusk
261 picks · 176 bans
Rubick
260 picks · 169 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 25%
Hero pool strength54% Team D
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team D 45%Team SMG 55%
The model gave 55% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 55%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1