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BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Dloss 1:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team SMGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team D

Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Ponlo · 3 games
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Ponlo · 1 game
0%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
vtFαded · 1 game
100%
Axe
Axeoften banned
vtFαded · 1 game
100%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
vtFαded · 1 game
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
vtFαded · 1 game
0%
Lion
Lion
Ponlo · 1 game
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Ponlo · 1 game
100%

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 11 games
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
AhFu · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 6 games
83%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kpii · 5 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moon · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
458 picks · 182 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
358 picks · 200 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
346 picks · 556 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
329 picks · 821 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 479 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
309 picks · 613 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
304 picks · 242 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
288 picks · 363 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:21
Team D 39%Team SMG 61%
The model gave 61% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team D in 41:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptervtFαded
40% · 41 game75% · 8 games
SpectreMidOne
Spectre
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightPonlo
45% · 54 games50% · 31 game
MiranaMoon
Mirana
43% · 3 games
Naga Sirenkpii
Naga Siren
61% · 42 games
Nyx AssassinAhFu
Nyx Assassin
57% · 11 games
DisruptorRoddgeee
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 65%
Accuracy by game0 of 1