Immortal Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DDloss 0:2series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team YYFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DD
No games played over 6 months.
Team YYF
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
479 picks · 446 bans
Tiny
468 picks · 537 bans
Ringmaster
442 picks · 221 bans
Terrorblade
343 picks · 647 bans
Storm Spirit
305 picks · 450 bans
Ancient Apparition
296 picks · 669 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 222 bans
Windranger
281 picks · 84 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% Team DD
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Team DD
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:26
Team DD 84%Team YYF 16%
The model gave 84% on Team DD — the game was taken by Team YYF in 41:31.
Game 2prediction missed36:16
Team DD 84%Team YYF 16%
The model gave 84% on Team DD — the game was taken by Team YYF in 33:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DD · 84%
Series resultTeam YYF 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2