Immortal Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DDwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Zhouloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DD
No games played over 6 months.
Team Zhou
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
459 picks · 450 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 576 bans
Ringmaster
319 picks · 147 bans
Phantom Assassin
301 picks · 602 bans
Terrorblade
282 picks · 514 bans
Muerta
280 picks · 156 bans
Bristleback
277 picks · 511 bans
Beastmaster
276 picks · 570 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Team DD
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Zhou
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:22
Team DD 45%Team Zhou 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Zhou — the game was taken by Team DD in 42:41.
Game 2prediction missed28:16
Team DD 45%Team Zhou 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Zhou — the game was taken by Team DD in 29:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zhou · 55%
Series resultTeam DD 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2