Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Denloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Estar Backswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Den
Centaur Warrunner
Frank · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Demon · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Wits · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Chaos Knight
Demon · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Frank · 1 game
Earth Spirit
Demon · 1 game
Estar Backs
Doomoften banned
Frank · 4 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Wits · 4 games
Ringmaster
Prada · 4 games
Chen
Prada · 3 games
Enchantress
Prada · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Leostyle · 3 games
Muerta
Michael · 3 games
Riki
Michael · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
521 picks · 603 bans
Ringmaster
471 picks · 237 bans
Jakiro
458 picks · 433 bans
Terrorblade
371 picks · 775 bans
Storm Spirit
351 picks · 513 bans
Ancient Apparition
343 picks · 791 bans
Tusk
333 picks · 297 bans
Shadow Shaman
320 picks · 353 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 36%
Hero pool strength63% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:25
Team Den 48%Estar Backs 52%
The model gave 52% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 42:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenWits
GyrocopterLumière
Dark SeerFrank
TuskPrada
Naga SirenMjz
Chaos KnightDemon
Game 2prediction correct17:32
Team Den 44%Estar Backs 56%
The model gave 56% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 45:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonWits
GyrocopterLumière
DawnbreakerFrank
Naga SirenPrada
Nature's ProphetDemon
OracleMjz
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 59%
Series resultEstar Backs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2