Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Disillusionloss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Holy Grailwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Disillusion
Doomoften banned
Killa · 4 games
Rubick
Eren · 4 games
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 3 games
Tusk
Eren · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Killa · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 2 games
Clockwerk
Eren · 1 game
Holy Grail
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Rubick
omoxiloyi · 2 games
Snapfire
omoxiloyi · 2 games
Tusk
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Underlord
Tzy · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tzy · 1 game
Mirana
omoxiloyi · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
897 picks · 619 bans
Tiny
639 picks · 443 bans
Nature's Prophet
539 picks · 857 bans
Treant Protector
537 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
479 picks · 329 bans
Death Prophet
468 picks · 1005 bans
Clockwerk
440 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Team Disillusion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Holy Grail
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:40
Team Disillusion 50%Holy Grail 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 46:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerKilla
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
RubickEren
MarsTzy
51% · 210 games
Snapfireomoxiloyi
Game 2prediction correct44:23
Team Disillusion 51%Holy Grail 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterKilla
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
RubickEren
Legion CommanderTzy
41% · 273 games
Snapfireomoxiloyi
Game 3prediction missed17:45
Team Disillusion 50%Holy Grail 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 40:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomKilla
Outworld DestroyerButterflyEffect
DisruptorEren
Primal BeastTzy
46% · 129 games
Clockwerkomoxiloyi
Model check result
Model favoriteHoly Grail · 53%
Series resultHoly Grail 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3