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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Disillusionwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Holy Grailloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Disillusion

Rubick
Rubick
Eren · 11 games
36%
Doom
Doomsignature
Killa · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Killa · 4 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 3 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Eren · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Eren · 3 games
67%

Holy Grail

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
omoxiloyi · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tzy · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
omoxiloyi · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
omoxiloyi · 4 games
25%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Tzy · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
997 picks · 692 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
642 picks · 478 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 936 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 406 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 419 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
531 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1208 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
506 picks · 384 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Disillusion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Holy Grail
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:48
Team Disillusion 49%Holy Grail 51%
The model gave 51% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 44:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomKilla
50% · 216 games49% · 291 game
Death ProphetButterflyEffect
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickEren
48% · 495 games54% · 179 games
Primal BeastTzy
Primal Beast
52% · 241 game
Clockwerkomoxiloyi
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct28:7
Team Disillusion 52%Holy Grail 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 21:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeKilla
58% · 19 games50% · 80 games
DoomTzy
Doom
Enchantress
EnchantressEren
50% · 95 games44% · 19 games
WindrangerButterflyEffect
Windranger
48% · 15 games
Earth Spiritomoxiloyi
Earth Spirit
Game 3prediction correct38:25
Team Disillusion 50%Holy Grail 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 46:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerKilla
59% · 45 games40% · 128 games
DoomTzy
Doom
Rubick
RubickEren
54% · 168 games41% · 29 games
Void SpiritButterflyEffect
Void Spirit
52% · 56 games
Skywrath Mageomoxiloyi
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteHoly Grail · 51%
Series resultTeam Disillusion 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3