Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Disillusionloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Holy Grailwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Disillusion
Rubick
Eren · 15 games
Doomoften banned
Killa · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Killa · 4 games
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 3 games
Disruptor
Eren · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
Eren · 3 games
Holy Grail
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 9 games
Clockwerk
omoxiloyi · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Tzy · 7 games
Pugnasignature
Drink · 6 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Dark Willow
Drink · 5 games
Earth Spirit
omoxiloyi · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
710 picks · 497 bans
Disruptor
572 picks · 506 bans
Doom
563 picks · 1097 bans
Techies
549 picks · 601 bans
Beastmaster
538 picks · 1224 bans
Ember Spirit
467 picks · 1041 bans
Pangolier
460 picks · 925 bans
Enchantress
457 picks · 662 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Holy Grail
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Holy Grail
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:42
Team Disillusion 39%Holy Grail 61%
The model gave 61% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 54:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightEren
TerrorbladeSummer
57% · 49 games
PangolierGaN-
32% · 18 games
Shadow DemonDrink
55% · 29 games
UndyingSj
Game 2prediction correct20:23
Team Disillusion 38%Holy Grail 62%
The model gave 62% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 48:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth SpiritEren
LifestealerSummer
59% · 13 games
Primal BeastGaN-
45% · 7 games
Dark WillowDrink
63% · 4 games
OracleSj
Model check result
Model favoriteHoly Grail · 71%
Series resultHoly Grail 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2