Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Disillusionloss 0:1series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Piggy Killerwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Disillusion
Rubick
Eren · 10 games
Doomsignature
Killa · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 4 games
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Killa · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 3 games
Disruptor
Eren · 3 games
Tusk
Eren · 3 games
Piggy Killer
Tinysignature
Frisk · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 4 games
Enchantress
Victoria · 3 games
Mirana
Frisk · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 2 games
Disruptor
Frisk · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1004 picks · 673 bans
Tiny
658 picks · 481 bans
Nature's Prophet
607 picks · 957 bans
Tusk
556 picks · 439 bans
Snapfire
523 picks · 357 bans
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1162 bans
Treant Protector
505 picks · 494 bans
Disruptor
501 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 83%
Hero pool strength68% Piggy Killer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Piggy Killer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:28
Team Disillusion 28%Piggy Killer 72%
The model gave 72% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 32:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomKilla
Lone Druidflyfly
RubickEren
PuckXm
55% · 167 games
Primal BeastSrf
57% · 225 games
DisruptorVictoria
48% · 145 games
MarciFrisk
Model check result
Model favoritePiggy Killer · 84%
Series resultPiggy Killer 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1