Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Disillusionwin 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Supernovaloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Disillusion
Rubick
Eren · 15 games
Doomoften banned
Killa · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Killa · 4 games
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 3 games
Disruptor
Eren · 3 games
Mirana
Eren · 3 games
Supernova
Rubick
sheep · 10 games
Phoenix
sheep · 6 games
Tusksignature
sheep · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
sheep · 5 games
Earth Spirit
sheep · 3 games
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
Hoodwink
sheep · 3 games
Dark Willow
sheep · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
754 picks · 629 bans
Disruptor
608 picks · 536 bans
Doom
536 picks · 1064 bans
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1331 bans
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1174 bans
Pangolier
460 picks · 955 bans
Techies
457 picks · 478 bans
Enchantress
439 picks · 633 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Supernova
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:31
Team Disillusion 46%Supernova 54%
The model gave 54% on Supernova — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 51:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BatriderEren
MagnusFreeze
37% · 48 games
Enchantresssheep
Game 2prediction correct29:36
Team Disillusion 43%Supernova 57%
The model gave 57% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 41:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nyx AssassinEren
MedusaFreeze
36% · 29 games
Batridersheep
Game 3prediction missed38:53
Team Disillusion 45%Supernova 55%
The model gave 55% on Supernova — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 56:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritEren
DoomFreeze
47% · 53 games
Rubicksheep
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 61%
Series resultTeam Disillusion 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3