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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Disillusionwin 1:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Cloudloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Disillusion

Snapfire
Snapfire
Eren · 5 games
20%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Killa · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Eren · 4 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
BEYOND · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Eren · 3 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Killa · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 2 games
50%

Team Cloud

Tusk
Tusk
mercy · 9 games
44%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stariff · 6 games
17%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
20%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
csj · 5 games
40%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
mercy · 4 games
25%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Stariff · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marcioften banned
csj · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
668 picks · 428 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
578 picks · 543 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
557 picks · 441 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
479 picks · 538 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
387 picks · 386 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
380 picks · 206 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
345 picks · 525 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 221 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% Team Disillusion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Team Disillusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Disillusion 54%Team Cloud 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Team Disillusion.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Disillusion · 54%
Series resultTeam Disillusion 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1