Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Disillusionloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Zerowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Disillusion
Rubick
Eren · 13 games
Doomoften banned
Killa · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Killa · 4 games
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 3 games
Disruptor
Eren · 3 games
Mirana
Eren · 3 games
Team Zero
Doomoften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
zzq · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iceice · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Cty · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
711 picks · 615 bans
Disruptor
594 picks · 516 bans
Beastmaster
496 picks · 1231 bans
Doom
494 picks · 956 bans
Ember Spirit
441 picks · 1099 bans
Pangolier
428 picks · 883 bans
Mirana
416 picks · 220 bans
Enchantress
410 picks · 588 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength61% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:26
Team Disillusion 36%Team Zero 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 50:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow DemonEren
Arc WardenCty
56% · 14 games
BeastmasterBEYOND
56% · 21 game
Tiny7e
54% · 9 games
Keeper of the Lighticeice
50% · 12 games
Silencerzzq
Game 2prediction correct8:28
Team Disillusion 38%Team Zero 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 28:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow DemonEren
MorphlingCty
43% · 26 games
Pangolier7e
25% · 12 games
Spirit BreakerBEYOND
47% · 39 games
Rubickiceice
little data
Warlockzzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 74%
Series resultTeam Zero 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2