Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
5ManMidasloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Abaddon
Bloody Nine · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 5 games
Hoodwink
yarintheslayer · 4 games
Rubick
yarintheslayer · 3 games
Lion
yarintheslayer · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
Bane
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Disruptor
Bloody Nine · 1 game
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
338 picks · 492 bans
Snapfire
297 picks · 168 bans
Bane
288 picks · 224 bans
Weaver
276 picks · 619 bans
Tidehunter
255 picks · 385 bans
Monkey King
248 picks · 722 bans
Ember Spirit
222 picks · 302 bans
Disruptor
217 picks · 137 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:39
Team DogChamp 69%5ManMidas 31%
The model gave 69% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by 5ManMidas in 44:00.
Game 2prediction correct47:37
Team DogChamp 69%5ManMidas 31%
The model gave 69% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 46:12.
Game 3prediction correct49:38
Team DogChamp 69%5ManMidas 31%
The model gave 69% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 45:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 69%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3