Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChamploss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Arkosh Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
70 picks · 151 bans
Puck
63 picks · 170 bans
Earth Spirit
57 picks · 50 bans
Void Spirit
52 picks · 101 bans
Rubick
47 picks · 25 bans
Undying
46 picks · 70 bans
Monkey King
45 picks · 100 bans
Phoenix
44 picks · 58 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:32
Team DogChamp 59%Arkosh Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 31:35.
Game 2prediction missed20:37
Team DogChamp 59%Arkosh Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 30:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 59%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2