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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChamploss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
B8 Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team DogChamp

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Bloody Nine · 14 games
57%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Bloody Nine · 11 games
73%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
red2 · 10 games
80%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Speeed · 9 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
dnm · 8 games
38%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Bloody Nine · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
red2 · 7 games
57%

B8 Esports

Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 10 games
30%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 9 games
33%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Lodine · 9 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
88%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
43%
Io
Iosignature
Lodine · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
556 picks · 596 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
462 picks · 231 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
423 picks · 777 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 680 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
364 picks · 365 bans
48%
Morphling
Morphling
339 picks · 717 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
336 picks · 821 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
334 picks · 715 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total62% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:33
Team DogChamp 56%B8 Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 45:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSpeeed
45% · 249 games49% · 32 games
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
Phantom Assassin
Medusa
Medusadnm
58% · 110 games50% · 89 games
EarthshakerDendi
Earthshaker
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinred2
54% · 133 games60% · 26 games
Night StalkerStoneBank
Night Stalker
Tusk
TuskMoOz
51% · 343 games46% · 557 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBloody Nine
44% · 71 game51% · 202 games
SilencerKidaro
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed17:25
Team DogChamp 53%B8 Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 37:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassindnm
54% · 114 games45% · 47 games
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
Phantom Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSpeeed
51% · 113 games48% · 154 games
EarthshakerDendi
Earthshaker
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritred2
51% · 334 games49% · 106 games
Legion CommanderStoneBank
Legion Commander
Enchantress
EnchantressBloody Nine
53% · 228 games47% · 823 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Tiny
TinyMoOz
54% · 377 games44% · 36 games
GrimstrokeKidaro
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 62%
Series resultB8 Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2