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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDUB Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team DogChamp

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 14 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 10 games
80%
Techies
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 8 games
63%
Marci
Marcisignature
yarintheslayer · 8 games
63%
Tinker
Tinkersignature
RCY · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 7 games
86%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 6 games
33%

CDUB Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 6 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 5 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Mark · 5 games
20%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sanctified · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Mark · 5 games
60%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
islA · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
654 picks · 422 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
569 picks · 539 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 438 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
467 picks · 534 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
384 picks · 385 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 206 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
336 picks · 513 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
332 picks · 219 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:13
Team DogChamp 62%CDUB Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 26:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciYuma
48% · 313 games53% · 150 games
LycanislA
Lycan
Pangolier
PangolierRCY
47% · 326 games56% · 253 games
Primal BeastMark
Primal Beast
Beastmaster
BeastmasterITALIANO GANGSTA
48% · 243 games54% · 271 game
DawnbreakerDouble King
Dawnbreaker
Rubick
RubickGiant
46% · 336 games54% · 397 games
MiranaDuster
Mirana
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenBloody Nine
48% · 184 games46% · 331 game
HoodwinkSanctified
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct52:16
Team DogChamp 60%CDUB Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 31:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusYuma
55% · 89 games54% · 226 games
LinaDouble King
Lina
Pangolier
PangolierRCY
48% · 416 games41% · 334 games
Ember SpiritMark
Ember Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaITALIANO GANGSTA
57% · 192 games46% · 188 games
Nature's ProphetislA
Nature's Prophet
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorGiant
56% · 291 game44% · 160 games
BaneDuster
Bane
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenBloody Nine
49% · 185 games49% · 265 games
ClockwerkSanctified
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 69%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2