Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Electronic Boysloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Enchantress
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
yarintheslayer · 1 game
Oracle
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 1 game
Electronic Boys
Jakiro
albinozebra · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Giant · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
albinozebra · 1 game
Grimstroke
albinozebra · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Speeed · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Speeed · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Speeed · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Giant · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
153 picks · 271 bans
Puck
148 picks · 348 bans
Earth Spirit
136 picks · 113 bans
Void Spirit
131 picks · 192 bans
Phoenix
118 picks · 132 bans
Nyx Assassin
103 picks · 344 bans
Keeper of the Light
101 picks · 186 bans
Rubick
98 picks · 50 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 29%
Hero pool strength51% Electronic Boys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:18
Team DogChamp 54%Electronic Boys 46%
The model gave 54% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 28:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunterlukiluki
JuggernautSpeeed
Rubickyarintheslayer
Night StalkerGiant
PuckBloody Nine
Keeper of the Lightalbinozebra
Game 2prediction missed24:47
Team DogChamp 54%Electronic Boys 46%
The model gave 54% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Electronic Boys in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand Kinglukiluki
Wraith KingSpeeed
Shadow Shamanyarintheslayer
Nature's ProphetGiant
UndyingBloody Nine
Witch Doctoralbinozebra
Game 3prediction correct41:36
Team DogChamp 55%Electronic Boys 45%
The model gave 55% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marslukiluki
RikiSpeeed
Keeper of the Lightyarintheslayer
Outworld DestroyerGiant
RubickBloody Nine
Witch Doctoralbinozebra
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 59%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3