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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Feltloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team DogChamp

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 13 games
62%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Bloody Nine · 10 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
red2 · 10 games
80%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Speeed · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Speeed · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 7 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
FrancisLee · 7 games
57%

Felt

Mirana
Mirana
solji · 15 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
solji · 8 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Berna · 7 games
43%
Disruptor
Disruptor
albinozebra · 7 games
57%
Lich
Lichsignature
albinozebra · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 5 games
20%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
solji · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
580 picks · 614 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
464 picks · 242 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 805 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
376 picks · 384 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
374 picks · 716 bans
49%
Doom
Doom
345 picks · 735 bans
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
343 picks · 836 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
339 picks · 719 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total61% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:7
Team DogChamp 56%Felt 44%
The model gave 56% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svendnm
52% · 29 games50% · 74 games
LycanFayde
Lycan
Pangolier
Pangolierred2
50% · 75 games39% · 57 games
Invokersolji
Invoker
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderSpeeed
59% · 14 games58% · 23 games
Witch Doctoralbinozebra
Witch Doctor
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMoOz
53% · 24 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBloody Nine
53% · 12 games
Game 2prediction missed18:21
Team DogChamp 57%Felt 43%
The model gave 57% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Felt in 46:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladednm
46% · 174 games51% · 365 games
BeastmasterFayde
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritred2
52% · 168 games50% · 310 games
Miranasolji
Mirana
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSpeeed
58% · 86 games46% · 70 games
Jakiroalbinozebra
Jakiro
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMoOz
47% · 91 game
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBloody Nine
51% · 226 games
Game 3prediction correct17:10
Team DogChamp 54%Felt 46%
The model gave 54% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 31:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterdnm
56% · 11 games54% · 158 games
Death ProphetFayde
Death Prophet
Puck
Puckred2
47% · 60 games38% · 40 games
Earth Spiritsolji
Earth Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordSpeeed
58% · 14 games51% · 31 game
Dazzlealbinozebra
Dazzle
Lion
LionMoOz
44% · 5 games
Undying
UndyingBloody Nine
53% · 139 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 61%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3