Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChamploss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LBLucky Birdwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Bane
Bloody Nine · 15 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 12 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 10 games
Tiny
StoneBank · 10 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 8 games
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
yarintheslayer · 7 games
Lucky Bird
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
BlackSoul · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 1 game
Hoodwink
FrancisLee · 1 game
Iooften banned
FrancisLee · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
BlackSoul · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
505 picks · 450 bans
Mars
494 picks · 694 bans
Bane
464 picks · 286 bans
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 533 bans
Sand King
403 picks · 555 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 641 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 626 bans
Grimstroke
361 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 80%
Hero pool strength60% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team DogChamp 51%Lucky Bird 49%
The model gave 51% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Lucky Bird.
Game 2prediction missed
Team DogChamp 51%Lucky Bird 49%
The model gave 51% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Lucky Bird.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 51%
Series resultLucky Bird 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2