The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBLucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Bane
Bloody Nine · 16 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 11 games
Tiny
StoneBank · 11 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
yarintheslayer · 8 games
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
Alchemistsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 6 games
Lucky Bird
Pucksignature
BlackSoul · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
Tiny
FrancisLee · 6 games
Tusk
FrancisLee · 5 games
Zeusoften banned
FrancisLee · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
718 picks · 570 bans
Puck
497 picks · 1021 bans
Dawnbreaker
496 picks · 655 bans
Marci
482 picks · 807 bans
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 427 bans
Snapfire
329 picks · 162 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 393 bans
Razor
301 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:23
Team DogChamp 52%Lucky Bird 48%
The model gave 52% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 50:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
VenomancerITALIANO GANGSTA
BloodseekerRises
Primal Beastyarintheslayer
PuckBlackSoul
SnapfireBloody Nine
EarthshakerFrancisLee
Game 2prediction correct41:16
Team DogChamp 53%Lucky Bird 47%
The model gave 53% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 36:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerITALIANO GANGSTA
Templar AssassinRises
Marciyarintheslayer
LinaBlackSoul
UndyingBloody Nine
ClockwerkFrancisLee
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 57%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2