Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChamploss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 15 games
Invokersignature
RCY · 15 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 10 games
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
Tinkersignature
RCY · 8 games
nouns
Tusk
Gunnar · 14 games
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 12 games
Undyingsignature
Husky · 12 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 7 games
Tinysignature
Gunnar · 7 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 6 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Moo · 6 games
Snapfiresignature
Lelis · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
800 picks · 567 bans
Tiny
580 picks · 398 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 550 bans
Tusk
507 picks · 414 bans
Nature's Prophet
471 picks · 758 bans
Death Prophet
423 picks · 867 bans
Snapfire
419 picks · 301 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 875 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 72%
Hero pool strength53% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total77% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:27
Team DogChamp 34%nouns 66%
The model gave 66% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 36:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerRCY
LeshracGunnar
TimbersawSunlight
UrsaYamSun
Monkey KingFrancisLee
BeastmasterMoo
Dark WillowBloody Nine
DisruptorLelis
50% · 91 game
IoHusky
Game 2prediction correct11:31
Team DogChamp 33%nouns 67%
The model gave 67% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 27:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerRCY
LeshracGunnar
VisageSunlight
Monkey KingYamSun
TinyFrancisLee
RikiMoo
DisruptorBloody Nine
RubickLelis
51% · 108 games
IoHusky
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 77%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2