Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChamploss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The Cutwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Puckoften banned
Bloody Nine · 5 games
Rubick
yarintheslayer · 5 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 3 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
lukiluki · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
lukiluki · 2 games
The Cut
Void Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TingleK1ng · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
TingleK1ng · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
TingleK1ng · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
302 picks · 611 bans
Void Spirit
280 picks · 349 bans
Mars
239 picks · 423 bans
Earth Spirit
230 picks · 180 bans
Keeper of the Light
195 picks · 374 bans
Rubick
194 picks · 105 bans
Nyx Assassin
193 picks · 600 bans
Phoenix
188 picks · 218 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:28
Team DogChamp 43%The Cut 57%
The model gave 57% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 23:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingFayde
GyrocopterScourge McDuck
Pangolierlukiluki
Nature's ProphetTingleK1ng
Grimstrokeyarintheslayer
Ember SpiritLil_Nick
UndyingBloody Nine
Game 2prediction correct23:34
Team DogChamp 45%The Cut 55%
The model gave 55% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 51:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanFayde
Wraith KingScourge McDuck
Enigmalukiluki
Void SpiritLil_Nick
Earthshakeryarintheslayer
AxeTingleK1ng
Queen of PainBloody Nine
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 58%
Series resultThe Cut 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2