Immortal Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DYloss 1:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Maybewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DY
No games played over 6 months.
Team Maybe
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
488 picks · 479 bans
Tiny
402 picks · 551 bans
Ringmaster
353 picks · 163 bans
Terrorblade
283 picks · 533 bans
Phantom Assassin
264 picks · 538 bans
Muerta
262 picks · 146 bans
Storm Spirit
262 picks · 369 bans
Beastmaster
260 picks · 577 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Team DY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Maybe
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:32
Team DY 44%Team Maybe 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Maybe — the game was taken by Team Maybe in 30:59.
Game 2prediction missed10:31
Team DY 44%Team Maybe 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Maybe — the game was taken by Team DY in 32:53.
Game 3prediction correct20:45
Team DY 44%Team Maybe 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Maybe — the game was taken by Team Maybe in 42:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Maybe · 56%
Series resultTeam Maybe 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3