Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empire Hopeloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire Hope
Pudgesignature
krylat · 8 games
Iosignature
antoha · 6 games
Razoroften banned
Mastery · 5 games
Viperoften banned
Mastery · 5 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
antoha · 5 games
Alchemistoften banned
krylat · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
pJonn · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Mastery · 3 games
One Move
Miranasignature
sayuw · 30 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 30 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 29 games
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 29 games
Banesignature
Panto · 22 games
Marssignature
AfterLife · 17 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 16 games
Iosignature
Panto · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
738 picks · 575 bans
Puck
526 picks · 1063 bans
Dawnbreaker
468 picks · 611 bans
Marci
432 picks · 773 bans
Snapfire
369 picks · 195 bans
Winter Wyvern
368 picks · 405 bans
Razor
324 picks · 627 bans
Zeus
324 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:33
Team Empire Hope 37%One Move 63%
The model gave 63% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 47:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreakerkrylat
BristlebackSmiling Knight
VisagepJonn
Queen of Painmellojul
Winter Wyvernantoha
Death ProphetAfterLife
48% · 271 game
Tinysayuw
58% · 16 games
Vengeful SpiritPanto
Game 2prediction correct11:24
Team Empire Hope 35%One Move 65%
The model gave 65% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 27:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordkrylat
UrsaSmiling Knight
TimbersawpJonn
Queen of Painmellojul
Dazzleantoha
VenomancerAfterLife
62% · 44 games
ChenPanto
46% · 42 games
Tusksayuw
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 71%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2