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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 28 games
32%
Bane
Bane
Kaori · 27 games
41%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 16 games
25%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 15 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kaori · 13 games
46%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
lightless · 13 games
31%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 13 games
46%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Iceberg · 12 games
33%

AS Monaco Gambit

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
459 picks · 261 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
402 picks · 560 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
341 picks · 391 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
330 picks · 662 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
292 picks · 426 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
292 picks · 348 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
289 picks · 357 bans
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
264 picks · 559 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% AS Monaco Gambit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:14
Team Empire 52%AS Monaco Gambit 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 31:33.
Game 2prediction missed33:52
Team Empire 52%AS Monaco Gambit 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 54:21.
Game 3prediction missed23:32
Team Empire 52%AS Monaco Gambit 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 34:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 52%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3