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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
B8 Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 18 games
61%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Shachlo · 11 games
73%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 11 games
91%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 11 games
73%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
VANSKOR · 11 games
64%

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 18 games
61%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Dendi · 12 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 11 games
73%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 11 games
45%
Lina
Linaoften banned
[T]SA · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
44%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 8 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Watson · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
370 picks · 171 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
346 picks · 123 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
266 picks · 459 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 520 bans
57%
Luna
Luna
250 picks · 347 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
243 picks · 413 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
236 picks · 244 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
235 picks · 328 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Empire
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
Team Empire 61%B8 Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 53:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorLorenof
54% · 73 games36% · 17 games
SlarkWatson
Slark
Weaver
WeaverSmiling Knight
44% · 28 games58% · 117 games
TidehunterLimitless
Tidehunter
Kunkka
KunkkaShachlo
41% · 54 games51% · 39 games
ViperDendi
Viper
Mirana
Miranasayuw
55% · 109 games49% · 176 games
Lion[T]SA
Lion
Elder Titan
Elder TitanVANSKOR
47% · 85 games
Game 2prediction missed15:32
Team Empire 61%B8 Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Empire — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 44:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
39% · 33 games51% · 95 games
Monkey KingWatson
Monkey King
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSmiling Knight
43% · 38 games53% · 177 games
Void SpiritDendi
Void Spirit
Mars
MarsShachlo
49% · 185 games57% · 44 games
SlardarLimitless
Slardar
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesayuw
47% · 10 games49% · 23 games
Weaver[T]SA
Weaver
Elder Titan
Elder TitanVANSKOR
54% · 73 games
Game 3prediction missed14:28
Team Empire 61%B8 Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Empire — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 32:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSmiling Knight
44% · 67 games61% · 77 games
MedusaWatson
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
53% · 43 games48% · 146 games
Void SpiritDendi
Void Spirit
Axe
AxeShachlo
38% · 59 games45% · 74 games
BloodseekerLimitless
Bloodseeker
Phoenix
Phoenixsayuw
51% · 149 games53% · 55 games
Shadow Shaman[T]SA
Shadow Shaman
Bane
BaneVANSKOR
60% · 34 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 70%
Series resultB8 Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3