Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bramewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 25 games
Linaoften banned
kiyotaka · 21 game
Bane
Kaori · 20 games
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 17 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 17 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Shisui · 15 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 14 games
Brame
Marsoften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 13 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
Lunasignature
Nefrit · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Pucksignature
W1sh- · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
370 picks · 542 bans
Bane
331 picks · 255 bans
Snapfire
328 picks · 201 bans
Weaver
315 picks · 699 bans
Monkey King
255 picks · 754 bans
Tidehunter
248 picks · 389 bans
Disruptor
238 picks · 152 bans
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 330 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:32
Team Empire 34%Brame 66%
The model gave 66% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritIceberg
Templar AssassinW1sh-
Phantom Assassinlightless
RazorNefrit
MarsGhostik
Nature's ProphetSkyLark
GrimstrokeKaori
Nyx AssassinCTOMAHEH1
Io[T]SA
Dark WillowSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction correct14:36
Team Empire 37%Brame 63%
The model gave 63% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 32:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaIceberg
Templar AssassinW1sh-
Kunkkalightless
Queen of PainFocus
Outworld DestroyerGhostik
Dark SeerSkyLark
Clockwerk[T]SA
Spirit BreakerCTOMAHEH1
OracleKaori
SilencerSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 71%
Series resultBrame 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2