Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:1
CHILLAXwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Bane
Kaori · 22 games
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 19 games
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 14 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 13 games
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 13 games
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 12 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
Iooften banned
[T]SA · 11 games
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
437 picks · 263 bans
Queen of Pain
375 picks · 495 bans
Mars
360 picks · 503 bans
Weaver
348 picks · 482 bans
Kunkka
281 picks · 489 bans
Death Prophet
269 picks · 412 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 177 bans
Ember Spirit
249 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% CHILLAX
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:35
Team Empire 51%CHILLAX 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 36:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 51%
Series resultCHILLAX 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1