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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
cybercatswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Tiny
Tiny
jAMES · 25 games
36%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
jAMES · 20 games
45%
Bane
Bane
633 · 19 games
42%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 19 games
37%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
633 · 13 games
15%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 12 games
25%

cybercats

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 21 game
48%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 15 games
80%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 15 games
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hduo · 13 games
31%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 11 games
45%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 10 games
20%
Bane
Bane
Hduo · 9 games
22%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
543 picks · 458 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
439 picks · 684 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 541 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
394 picks · 280 bans
58%
Puck
Puck
352 picks · 809 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 578 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 626 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
334 picks · 531 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% cybercats
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:33
Team Empire 51%cybercats 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 1:08:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernaut7jesu
60% · 46 games39% · 30 games
AlchemistEgor
Alchemist
Zeus
ZeusSquad1x
44% · 36 games40% · 20 games
SlarkShigetsu
Slark
Beastmaster
BeastmasterShachlo
61% · 123 games50% · 126 games
Sand KingDkFogas
Sand King
Mirana
MiranajAMES
63% · 132 games39% · 58 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern633
49% · 74 games42% · 177 games
HoodwinkFezor
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct24:40
Team Empire 49%cybercats 51%
The model gave 51% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 42:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSquad1x
54% · 132 games45% · 125 games
Chaos KnightShigetsu
Chaos Knight
Razor
Razor7jesu
52% · 139 games56% · 60 games
VisageDkFogas
Visage
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerShachlo
47% · 71 game43% · 165 games
Void SpiritEgor
Void Spirit
Marci
MarcijAMES
47% · 36 games49% · 78 games
DoomFezor
Doom
Io
Io633
54% · 174 games51% · 124 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed8:31
Team Empire 50%cybercats 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Empire — the game was taken by cybercats in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa7jesu
51% · 152 games57% · 219 games
WeaverShigetsu
Weaver
Kunkka
KunkkaSquad1x
44% · 177 games60% · 34 games
ZeusEgor
Zeus
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerShachlo
46% · 42 games47% · 51 game
UnderlordDkFogas
Underlord
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker633
44% · 91 game47% · 196 games
HoodwinkFezor
Hoodwink
Mirana
MiranajAMES
53% · 153 games51% · 115 games
ClockwerkHduo
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 51%
Series resultcybercats 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3