Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HellRaisersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 10 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
Tusksignature
sayuw · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
sayuw · 8 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 6 games
Timbersawsignature
Petushara · 6 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
410 picks · 1012 bans
Mars
369 picks · 597 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 356 bans
Lion
350 picks · 182 bans
Void Spirit
331 picks · 526 bans
Death Prophet
325 picks · 705 bans
Tusk
308 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
259 picks · 288 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:31
Team Empire 32%HellRaisers 68%
The model gave 68% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Team Empire in 43:53.
Game 2prediction missed38:15
Team Empire 32%HellRaisers 68%
The model gave 68% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Team Empire in 45:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 68%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2