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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
High Coast Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 8 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 7 games
57%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
20%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
EcNart · 4 games
50%

High Coast Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Era · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
25%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
380 picks · 802 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
354 picks · 481 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
303 picks · 531 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 229 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
269 picks · 433 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
249 picks · 148 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
236 picks · 493 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
233 picks · 348 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% High Coast Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:20
Team Empire 59%High Coast Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Empire — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 51:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 59%
Series resultHigh Coast Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1