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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hydrawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 25 games
32%
Bane
Bane
Kaori · 23 games
39%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 18 games
28%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 13 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
25%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 12 games
17%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
[T]SA · 11 games
36%

Hydra

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 28 games
57%
Bane
Banesignature
Muka · 27 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 27 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 24 games
46%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Askold · 22 games
64%
Weaver
Weaver
Muka · 21 game
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 20 games
45%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
471 picks · 628 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 497 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
443 picks · 279 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
407 picks · 531 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
362 picks · 802 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 556 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
341 picks · 558 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 514 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 53%
Hero pool strength63% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total55% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:41
Team Empire 54%Hydra 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Hydra in 30:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaDodren
60% · 135 games44% · 206 games
PuckAskold
Puck
Pangolier
PangoliermeLes
50% · 130 games47% · 258 games
Hoodwinkkickeed
Hoodwink
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightxannii
50% · 66 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanillusion
56% · 55 games
Io
Io633
57% · 78 games
Game 2prediction correct41:21
Team Empire 52%Hydra 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 45:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightxannii
50% · 66 games49% · 178 games
PuckAskold
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDodren
53% · 110 games50% · 213 games
Hoodwinkkickeed
Hoodwink
Sand King
Sand KingmeLes
51% · 118 games
Techies
Techiesillusion
22% · 5 games
Disruptor
Disruptor633
54% · 92 games
Game 3prediction missed10:26
Team Empire 52%Hydra 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Hydra in 30:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladexannii
55% · 106 games49% · 223 games
PuckAskold
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingmeLes
49% · 92 games50% · 209 games
Abaddonkickeed
Abaddon
Kunkka
KunkkaDodren
50% · 92 games
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkillusion
46% · 124 games
Pugna
Pugna633
53% · 18 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 55%
Series resultHydra 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3