Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KCKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Bane
Kaori · 27 games
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 25 games
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 16 games
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 15 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 13 games
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 13 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
lightless · 12 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Iceberg · 12 games
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Bane
smN · 5 games
Centaur Warrunner
Corrupted · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Corrupted · 5 games
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Munkushi~ · 4 games
Rikioften banned
Hellscream · 4 games
Treant Protector
smN · 4 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
452 picks · 262 bans
Mars
401 picks · 554 bans
Tiny
333 picks · 379 bans
Death Prophet
329 picks · 644 bans
Weaver
293 picks · 361 bans
Ember Spirit
287 picks · 418 bans
Sand King
279 picks · 344 bans
Templar Assassin
263 picks · 560 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 70%
Hero pool strength64% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:33
Team Empire 47%KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 53%
The model gave 53% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by Team Empire in 36:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinCooman
MedusaMunkushi~
BeastmasterDkFogas
AxeCorrupted
MarsDodren
Skywrath MageHellscream
Death ProphetAntares
BanesmN
Lich[T]SA
Game 2prediction correct14:30
Team Empire 47%KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 53%
The model gave 53% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 35:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaCooman
Monkey KingMunkushi~
MarsDodren
AxeCorrupted
Death ProphetDkFogas
PhoenixHellscream
RikiAntares
BanesmN
Lich[T]SA
Game 3prediction correct20:45
Team Empire 46%KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 54%
The model gave 54% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 39:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautCooman
Ember SpiritMunkushi~
Monkey KingDodren
Sand KingCorrupted
MarsDkFogas
Dark WillowHellscream
Skywrath MageAntares
BanesmN
Clockwerk[T]SA
Model check result
Model favoriteKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI · 53%
Series resultKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3