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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 1:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Khanloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 19 games
53%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 16 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
73%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 13 games
62%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 12 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Shachlo · 11 games
45%

Khan

Mars
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 14 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 14 games
29%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 11 games
45%
Bane
Bane
antoha · 10 games
20%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 9 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 9 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
layme · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Dodren · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
261 picks · 348 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
255 picks · 383 bans
46%
Monkey King
Monkey King
253 picks · 579 bans
61%
Bane
Bane
220 picks · 146 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
217 picks · 100 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
217 picks · 248 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
212 picks · 456 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
210 picks · 261 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Empire 54%Khan 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 54%
Series resultTeam Empire 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1