?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
sayuw · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
20%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 9 games
56%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 8 games
38%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Lodine · 8 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 6 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 6 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
427 picks · 966 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
398 picks · 557 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
359 picks · 709 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 576 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
313 picks · 298 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
296 picks · 291 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 208 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
265 picks · 142 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:11
Team Empire 42%Nemiga Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Team Empire in 32:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSmiling Knight
38% · 9 games51% · 81 game
PangolierAinkrad
Pangolier
Morphling
Morphlingkiyotaka
43% · 53 games52% · 70 games
Troll WarlordKiritych
Troll Warlord
Snapfire
SnapfirePetushara
59% · 25 games44% · 16 games
KunkkaTheChosenOne
Kunkka
Enchantress
EnchantressVANSKOR
49% · 45 games54% · 80 games
OracleLodine
Oracle
Tusk
Tusksayuw
48% · 115 games
Game 2prediction correct29:28
Team Empire 42%Nemiga Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 49:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSmiling Knight
64% · 36 games43% · 62 games
Troll WarlordKiritych
Troll Warlord
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
53% · 58 games43% · 49 games
LeshracAinkrad
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerPetushara
66% · 23 games44% · 11 games
MagnusTheChosenOne
Magnus
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeVANSKOR
54% · 89 games47% · 98 games
OracleLodine
Oracle
Tiny
Tinysayuw
30% · 14 games
Game 3prediction missed27:5
Team Empire 42%Nemiga Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Team Empire in 27:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
53% · 11 games53% · 35 games
Phantom AssassinKiritych
Phantom Assassin
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerPetushara
49% · 27 games53% · 59 games
TidehunterTheChosenOne
Tidehunter
Invoker
Invokerkiyotaka
56% · 30 games34% · 10 games
RikiAinkrad
Riki
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesayuw
50% · 70 games44% · 50 games
SnapfireLodine
Snapfire
Abaddon
AbaddonVANSKOR
47% · 16 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 66%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3