?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 21 game
33%
Bane
Bane
Kaori · 19 games
32%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 18 games
28%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 14 games
43%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Dodren · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cooman · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 10 games
20%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 21 game
48%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 20 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
VANSKOR · 19 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ainkrad · 18 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 17 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Kiritych · 17 games
47%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 16 games
69%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Heaven · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
483 picks · 453 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
481 picks · 673 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
458 picks · 281 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 501 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
415 picks · 570 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 655 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 583 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
353 picks · 304 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total53% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:30
Team Empire 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:03:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidShachlo
64% · 6 games44% · 186 games
Void SpiritMalr1ne
Void Spirit
Invoker
InvokerSquad1x
49% · 157 games50% · 95 games
Treant ProtectorCorrupted
Treant Protector
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightxannii
50% · 171 game57% · 6 games
ZeusHellscream
Zeus
Clockwerk
ClockwerkjAMES
54% · 109 games46% · 127 games
Pugnaso bad
Pugna
Snapfire
Snapfire633
54% · 172 games51% · 201 game
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Game 2prediction correct9:23
Team Empire 47%Nemiga Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSquad1x
50% · 92 games48% · 17 games
HuskarMalr1ne
Huskar
Tiny
Tinyxannii
45% · 99 games48% · 70 games
JuggernautKiritych
Juggernaut
Slardar
SlardarShachlo
51% · 11 games49% · 41 game
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
SnapfirejAMES
53% · 76 games51% · 107 games
Winter Wyvernso bad
Winter Wyvern
Abaddon
Abaddon633
49% · 82 games54% · 125 games
Treant ProtectorHellscream
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 53%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2