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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
No Sorrywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Bane
Bane
Kaori · 25 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 25 games
32%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 15 games
27%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 15 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kaori · 13 games
46%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 13 games
46%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 12 games
17%

No Sorry

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 12 games
33%
Bane
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Dinozavrik · 11 games
36%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 9 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 8 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Worick · 6 games
17%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
LastHero- · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
444 picks · 260 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
400 picks · 548 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
320 picks · 617 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 366 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
304 picks · 387 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
281 picks · 406 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
274 picks · 449 bans
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
264 picks · 550 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:50
Team Empire 59%No Sorry 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Empire — the game was taken by No Sorry in 56:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCooman
51% · 228 games53% · 233 games
Tinylayme
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDodren
45% · 279 games44% · 219 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Necrophos
NecrophosDkFogas
60% · 74 games54% · 62 games
AxeLastHero-
Axe
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light633
51% · 116 games49% · 61 game
Skywrath Magey0nd
Skywrath Mage
Clockwerk
Clockwerk[T]SA
50% · 169 games48% · 291 game
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Bane
Game 2prediction correct35:33
Team Empire 59%No Sorry 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingCooman
54% · 248 games48% · 93 games
Troll Warlordlayme
Troll Warlord
Monkey King
Monkey KingDodren
52% · 252 games46% · 301 game
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingDkFogas
57% · 219 games47% · 533 games
MarsLastHero-
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon[T]SA
54% · 160 games35% · 84 games
Skywrath Magey0nd
Skywrath Mage
Bane
Bane633
55% · 363 games52% · 231 game
DisruptorBLACKARXANGEL
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed13:34
Team Empire 59%No Sorry 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Empire — the game was taken by No Sorry in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCooman
43% · 128 games48% · 289 games
Tinylayme
Tiny
Necrophos
NecrophosDodren
54% · 69 games49% · 290 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingDkFogas
51% · 208 games58% · 61 game
SlardarLastHero-
Slardar
Grimstroke
Grimstroke[T]SA
50% · 244 games37% · 76 games
Skywrath Magey0nd
Skywrath Mage
Bane
Bane633
52% · 285 games57% · 218 games
AbaddonBLACKARXANGEL
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 67%
Series resultNo Sorry 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3