Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NNoMarciwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 16 games
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
Miranasignature
sayuw · 14 games
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 13 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 13 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 12 games
NoMarci
Marsoften banned
Noticed · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 4 games
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 4 games
Snapfire
forcemajor · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Noticed · 4 games
Lion
forcemajor · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Daxak · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
258 picks · 319 bans
Tidehunter
258 picks · 373 bans
Monkey King
243 picks · 550 bans
Lion
225 picks · 108 bans
Void Spirit
225 picks · 244 bans
Lina
220 picks · 457 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 280 bans
Tiny
208 picks · 277 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%
Hero pool strength62% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:30
Team Empire 55%NoMarci 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Empire — the game was taken by NoMarci in 35:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkkalightless
LunaDaxak
Night StalkerGhostik
Void SpiritDodren
TinyWorick
MarsNoticed
Winter Wyvern[T]SA
WeaverRodjER
UndyingKaori
Elder TitanSoNNeikO
Game 2prediction missed13:30
Team Empire 54%NoMarci 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by NoMarci in 32:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelightless
Faceless VoidDaxak
KunkkaWorick
Earth SpiritDodren
MarsGhostik
MagnusNoticed
Shadow Demon[T]SA
SnapfireRodjER
DisruptorKaori
BaneSoNNeikO
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 60%
Series resultNoMarci 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2