Team Empire vs Rune Eaters — prediction DPC2S—ВЕ 2 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3

result vs prediction

Team Empireloss 0:2

series probability

44%56%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Rune Eaterswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Marsoften banned

DkFogas · 25 games

32%

Bane

Kaori · 23 games

39%

Grimstroke

[T]SA · 18 games

28%

Clockwerk

[T]SA · 13 games

38%

Sand Kingoften banned

DkFogas · 13 games

46%

Terrorbladeoften banned

lightless · 13 games

15%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Dodren · 12 games

25%

Queen of Painoften banned

Iceberg · 12 games

33%

Rune Eaters

Marsoften banned

Cloud · 6 games

50%

Tinysignature

TA2000 · 6 games

67%

Keeper of the Lightoften banned

ArrOw · 5 games

40%

Mirana

ArrOw · 5 games

60%

Storm Spiritoften banned

hAze · 5 games

60%

Dragon Knightoften banned

Cloud · 4 games

25%

Sand Kingoften banned

Cloud · 4 games

75%

Kunkkaoften banned

TA2000 · 3 games

33%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

473 picks · 627 bans

49%

Tiny

451 picks · 502 bans

50%

Bane

439 picks · 279 bans

57%

Sand King

409 picks · 531 bans

54%

Death Prophet

361 picks · 805 bans

55%

Storm Spirit

343 picks · 557 bans

55%

Pangolier

341 picks · 519 bans

53%

Ember Spirit

338 picks · 558 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)52% vs 54%

Hero pool strength58% Rune Eaters

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total56% Rune Eaters

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct14:19

Team Empire 44%Rune Eaters 56%

The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 31:14.

Game 2prediction correct29:38

Team Empire 44%Rune Eaters 56%

The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 42:21.

Model check result

Model favoriteRune Eaters · 56%

Series resultRune Eaters 0:2

Series predictioncorrect

Accuracy by game2 of 2